Manifold

Steve Hsu, Richard Hanania, and Rob Henderson were scheduled for a June 2023 panel as part of the University of Austin (UATX) Forbidden Courses series. Steve missed the panel due to travel issues, but the three have gathered on this podcast to recreate the fun!They discuss:0:00 Introduction1:20 The University of Austin and forbidden courses17:37 Will woke campus culture change anytime soon?29:57 Common people vs elites on affirmative action35:42 Why it’s uncomfortable to disagree about affirmative action41:22 Fraud and misrepresentation in higher ed44:20 The adversity carveout in the Supreme Court affirmative action ruling50:10 Standardized testing and elite university admissions1:06:18 Divergent views among racial and ethnic groups on affirmative action; radicalized Asian American males1:10:00 Differences between East and South Asians in the West  1:23:03 Class-based preferences and standardized tests1:31:57 Rob Henderson’s next move LINKSRichard Hanania’s new book: The Origins of Woke: Civil Rights Law, Cor

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.Steve and Richard discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling in Students For Fair Admissions vs Harvard and UNC.Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.0:00 Introduction1:09 Richard Sander’s initial reaction to the Supreme Court ruling4:03 How data influenced the court’s decision7:58 Overview of the court’s ruling11:27 Carve outs in the court’s ruling16:59 The litigation landscape21:25 Workarounds to race-blind admissions and the UC system32:22 Remedies: What will happen with Harvard and UNC now?38:02 The landscape of college admissions44:47 Effects of the Supreme Court ruling beyond higher educationLINKSSCOTUS decision on Affirmative Action:https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/supreme-court-decision-on-race-based-admissions/0a725aaabb459074/full.pdfRichard

In this episode, Steve talks to three AI engineers from his startup SuperFocus.AI.0:00 Introduction1:06 The Google memo and open-source AI 14:41 Sparsification and the size of models: AI on your phone?30:16 When will AI take over ordinary decision-making from humans?34:50 Rapid advances in AI: a view from inside41:28 AI Doomers and AlignmentLinks to earlier episodes on AI and LLMs.Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #35: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/artificial-intelligence-large-language-models-oxford-lecture-35Bing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Screening — #30: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/bing-vs-bard-us-china-stem-competition-and-embryo-screening-30ChatGPT, LLMs, and AI — #29: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chatgpt-llms-and-aiMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State U

David Paul Goldman is an American economic strategist and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler with the first column published January 1, 2000.Steve and David discuss:0:00 Introduction2:22 David’s background in music, finance, and Asia16:55 Looking back at the financial crisis23:04 Rise of the Chinese economy29:44 How Huawei’s strength is tied to China’s economic power36:49 Competition in the global electric vehicles market38:06 Why David thinks European countries like Germany will become closer with China45:29 U.S. manufacturing is falling behind52:08 Potential for war and ongoing U.S.-China competition1:04:07 Predictions for TaiwanLinks:David Goldman in Wikipedia:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_P._GoldmanSpengler column:https://asiatimes.com/author/spengler/You Will Be Assimilated: China's Plan to Sino-form the Worldhttps://www.amazon.com/You-Will-Be-Assimilated-Sino-form/dp/1642935409Prisoner’s Dilemma: Avoiding war with China is the most urg

This week's episode is based on a lecture Steve gave to an audience of theoretical physicists at Oxford University. The topic is artificial intelligence and large language models. Lecture slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1xiMeeRMVpB-_W66BnyRyUAtrLlUwQNlndqbVcguKK8U/edit?usp=sharingChapter markers:0:00 Introduction2:31 Deep Learning and Neural Networks; history and mathematical results21:15 Embedding space, word vectors31:53 Next word prediction as objective function34:08 Attention is all you need37:09 Transformer architecture44:54 The geometry of thought52:57 What can LLMs do? Sparks of AGI1:02:41 Hallucination  1:14:40 SuperFocus testing and examples1:18:40 AI landscape, AGI, and the futureMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Di

In collaboration with her husband Malcolm Collins, Simone is an author (The Pragmatist's Guide to Life, Relationships, Sexuality, Governance, and Crafting Religion), education reform advocate (CollinsInstitute.org), pronatalism activist (Pronatalist.org), and business operator (Travelmax.com).Note: the YouTube version of this interview includes video of Steve and Simone.Steve and Simone discuss:0:00 Introduction1:49 Simone's IVF journey, and embryo screening40:02 Dating; girl autists55:41 Finding a husband, systematized1:09:57 Pronatalism Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.—Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture c

Katherine Dee is a writer, journalist, and internet historian.Steve and Katherine discuss:0:00 Introduction1:15 Katherine’s early life and background21:52 Mass shootings, Manifestos, Nihilism, and Incels59:35 Trad values, Sex negativity vs Porn and Fleshlights1:28:54 Elon Musk’s plans for Twitter1:33:00 TikTok1:41:41 Adderall1:44:07 AI/GPT impact on writers and journos1:49:30 Gen-X generation gap: are the kids alright?References:Katherine’s Substack: https://defaultfriend.substack.com/“Mass Shootings and the World Liberalism Made”: https://contra.substack.com/p/mass-shootings-and-the-world-liberalismMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Super

Marc Martinez is the director of Dream Big, a documentary about Gold's Gym and the golden age of bodybuilding in Venice and Santa Monica in the 1970s.Steve and Marc discuss:(01:34) - Marc's background in bodybuilding (05:36) - Reflections on bodybuilding in Southern California (26:03) - Setting the record straight on steroid use (33:52) - Frank Zane (38:33) - Robby Robinson (40:32) - Butler, Gaines, and Arnold (42:46) - "Dream Big" (48:18) - Pumping Iron (59:44) - Hypersexuality in bodybuilding (01:10:56) - What's next for Marc References:Watch Dream Big on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Dream-Big-Ken-Sprague/dp/B0B8ST5LNL/Dream Big documentary: https://dreambigdoc.com/Dream Big trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X22ISDn083APumping Iron: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lCCk6rgn84Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University.

Gilles Saint-Paul is Professeur à l'Ecole Normale Supérieure. He is a graduate of Ecole Polytechnique in Engineering and received his PhD from MIT in Economics. Gilles and Steve discuss the French elite education system, the Yellow Vest movement, French politics and populism, and Saint-Paul’s paper on marriage markets and hypergamy.0:00 Introduction1:43 Gilles Saint-Paul's background and education6:31 French and American higher elite education14:44 The Yellow Vests41:46 Mating and HypergamyReferences:On the Yellow Vest Insurrectionhttps://gillessaintpaul.wordpress.com/2018/12/18/on-the-yellow-vest-insurrection/Genes, Legitimacy and Hypergamy: Another Look at the Economics of Marriagehttps://ideas.repec.org/p/ide/wpaper/9118.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and

Steve discusses the competition between Microsoft and Google, the competition between the U.S. and China in STEM, China’s new IVF policy, and a Science Magazine survey on polygenic screening of embryos.00:00 Introduction02:37 Bing vs Bard: LLMs and hallucination20:52 China demographics & STEM34:29 China IVF40:28 Survey on embryo screening in ScienceReferences:Bing vs Bard and Hallucination https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1625222378383876119China demographics and STEMhttps://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1620765589752119297https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623279827640848385China IVFhttps://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623475304432820224https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623478413758500864Survey on embryo screeninghttps://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623783244947722241https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623664372202500097Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics,

Steve discusses Large Language Model AIs such as ChatGPT. 0:00 How do LLMs work?10:22 Impact of ChatGPT15:21 AI landscape24:13 Hallucination and Focus33:09 Applications39:29 Future LandscapeReferences:Manifold interview with John Schulman of OpenAI:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/john-schulman-openai-and-recent-advances-in-artificial-intelligence-16Blog posts on word vectors and approximately linear vector space of concepts used by the human mind:https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-future-of-thought-via-thought.htmlhttps://infoproc.blogspot.com/2016/12/towards-geometry-of-thought.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.a

Dominic Cummings is a major historical figure in UK politics. He helped save the Pound Sterling, led the Vote Leave campaign, Got Brexit Done, and guided the Tories to a landslide general election victory. His time in No. 10 Downing Street as Boris Johnson's Chief Advisor was one of the most interesting and impactful periods in modern UK political history. Dom and Steve discuss all of this and more in this 2-hour episode.Steve and Dominic discuss:0:00 Early Life: Oxford, Russia, entering politics16:49 Keeping the UK out of the Euro19:41 How Dominic and Steve became acquainted: blogs, 2008 financial crisis, meeting at Google27:37 Vote Leave, the science of polling43:46 Cambridge Analytica conspiracy; History is impossible48:41  Dominic on Benedict Cumberbatch’s portrayal of him and the movie “Brexit: The Uncivil War”54:05 On joining British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office: an ultimatum1:06:31 The pandemic1:21:28 The Deep State, talent pipeline for public service1:47:25 Quants and weirdos invade No.101:52

Sahil Lavingia founded Gumroad at the age of 19 and built it into a leading digital commerce platform. He is the author of The Minimalist Entrepreneur and an investor in early-stage startups.Steve and Sahil discuss:0:00 Sahil's upbringing and start as an entrepreneur9:35 Tech founder at 19 and VC investment from Kleiner-Perkins24:15 Backstory of Gumroad30:30 Crowdfunding Gumroad37:09 Experiments with OpenAI LLM, ChatGPT, and the promise of AIReferences:Sahil's web pagehttps://sahillavingia.com/Ask My Book: interrogate Sahil's book via LLMhttps://askmybook.com/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Ot

Geoffrey Miller is an American evolutionary psychologist, author, and a professor of psychology at the University of New Mexico. He is known for his research on sexual selection in human evolution.For reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Miller_%28psychologist%29Steve and Geoffrey discuss:0:00 Geoffrey Miller's background, childhood, and how he became interested in psychology14:44 How evolutionary psychology is perceived and where the field is going38:23 The value of higher education: sobering facts about retention49:00 Dating, pickup artists, and relationships1:11:27 Polyamory1:24:56 FTX, poly, and effective altruism1:34:31 AI alignmentMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the Uni

Anna I. Krylov (Russian: Анна Игоревна Крылова) is a Professor of Chemistry at the University of Southern California (USC), working in the field of theoretical and computational quantum chemistry.Krylov is an outspoken advocate of freedom of speech and academic freedom. She is a founding member of the Academic Freedom Alliance and a member of its academic leadership committee. Her paper, The Peril of Politicizing Science, launched a national conversation among scientists and the general public on the growing influence of political ideology in STEM. It has received over 80,000 views and, according to Altmetric, was the all-time highest-ranked article in the Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters.Steve and Anna discuss:0:00 Anna Krylov’s background, upbringing in USSR7:03 Ideological control and censorship for the greater good?14:59 How ideology underpins DEI work in academic institutions30:40 Captured institutions37:05 How much is UC Berkeley spending on DEI, and where the money is going41:46 Krylov thinks it c

Abdel Abdellaoui is Assistant Professor of Genetics in the Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam.Abdel Abdellaoui is a geneticist who has been involved in a wide range of studies on psychiatric genetics, behavioral genetics, and population genetics. He is particularly interested in how collective behaviors, such as migration and mate choice, influence the genetic makeup of populations and the relationship between genetic risk factors and environmental exposures.Steve and Abdel discuss:00:00 Abdel’s background: education, family history, research career10:23 Abdel’s research focus: polygenic traits, geographical stratification21:43 Correlations across geographical regions33:21 Educational Attainment38:51 Comparisons across data sets44:48 Longevity52:04 Reaction to NIH restricting access to data on educational attainmentResources: Abdel Abdellaoui’s Google Scholar citations: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hsyseKEAAAAJ&hl=enMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Bl

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe the negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences. Rick and Steve discuss recent oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Students for Fair Admissions vs Harvard College and Students For Fair Admissions vs the University of North Carolina.0:00 Rick’s experience at the Supreme Court4:11 Rick’s impression of the oral arguments16:24 Analyzing the court’s questions29:09 The negative impact on Asian American students34:41 Shifting sentiment on affirmative action40:04 Three potential outcomes for Harvard and UNC cases44:00 Possible reasons for conservatives to be optimistic50:31 Final thoughts on experiencing oral arguments in person52:12 Mismatch theory 56:31 The future of higher education Resources Background on the Harvard case:https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/s

Peter Byrne is an investigative reporter and science writer based in Northern California. His popular biography, The Many Worlds of Hugh Everett III - Multiple Universes, Mutual Assured Destruction, and the Meltdown of a Nuclear Family (Oxford University Press, 2010) was followed by publication of The Everett Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, Collected Works 1957-1980, (Princeton University Press, 2012), co-edited with philosopher of science, Jeffrey A. Barrett, of UC Irvine.Everett's formulation of quantum mechanics, which implies the existence of a quantum multiverse, is favored by a significant (and growing) fraction of working physicists.Steve and Peter discuss:0:00 How Peter Byrne came to write a biography of Hugh Everett18:09 Everett’s personal life and groundbreaking thesis as a catalyst for the book24:00 Everett and Decoherence31:25 Reaction of other physicists to Everett’s many worlds theory40:46 Steve’s take on Everett’s many worlds theory43:41 Peter on the bifurcation of science and philosophy49

Jeffrey D. Sachs is a world-renowned economics professor, bestselling author, innovative educator, and global leader in sustainable development. Professor Sachs serves as the Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and is a University Professor, Columbia's highest academic rank.Steve and Jeffrey discuss:0:00 Jeffrey Sachs’ experience on the Lancet Commission for COVID-1913:41 Potential for bioweapons research19:06 Why a lab leak is plausible32:38 Possible defenses for COVID coverup43:56 Government secrecy and other areas of concern48:08 Reflections on Nord Stream sabotageResources:The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19pandemic, Sachs et al., Sept. 14 2022: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01585-9/fulltextWhy the Chair of the Lancet’s COVID-19 Commission Thinks The USGovernment Is Preventing a Real Investigation Into the Pandemic,Current Affairs, Aug 3 2022: https://www.jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/64rtmykxdl56eh

Rob Henderson grew up in foster homes in California, joined the Air Force at 17, attended Yale on the G.I. Bill, and is currently a Gates Fellow at Cambridge University (UK). He is an acute observer of American society and has coined the term Luxury Beliefs to describe ideas and opinions that confer status on the rich at very little cost, while taking a toll on the lower class.Steve and Rob discuss:00:00 Early life and foster experience20:21 Rob’s experience in the Air Force31:26 Transitioning from the Air Force to Yale and then Cambridge44:04 Dating and socializing as an older student50:06 Reflections on the Yale Halloween email controversy1:01:10 Personal incentives and careerists in higher education1:09:45 Luxury beliefs and how they show up in elite institutions1:31:08 Age and moral judgments1:42:50 Rob on resisting legacy academia and his futureLinks:Rob's substackhttps://robkhenderson.substack.com/Luxury Beliefs are the Latest Status Symbol for Rich Americanshttps://nypost.com/2019/08/17/luxury-beliefs-