Synopsis
man·i·fold /manfld/ many and various.
Episodes
-
Ken Liu: Art in the Age of AI — #79
13/02/2025 Duration: 01h07minKen Liu (born 1976) is an American author of science fiction and fantasy. Liu has won multiple Hugo and Nebula Awards for his novel translations and original short fiction. Liu's short story "The Paper Menagerie" is the first work of fiction, of any length, to win all of the Nebula, Hugo, and World Fantasy Awards. Besides his original work, Liu's translation of Liu Cixin's Chinese language novel The Three-Body Problem (the first in the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy) won the 2015 Hugo Award for Best Novel, making it the first translated novel to have won the award. He studied English Literature and Computer Science at Harvard College, and graduated from Harvard Law School. https://kenliu.name/ Steve and Ken discuss: 00:00 Meet Ken Liu: Acclaimed Sci-Fi and Fantasy Writer04:25 The Immigrant Experience and Cultural Perspectives09:22 Harvard, MSFT, HLS, Litigation15:01 The Art of Storytelling and Technology34:03 Controversy in AI Reasoning34:31 Technology Outstripping Science35:22 AI and the Arts38:30 The
-
US-PRC Tech War: DeepSeek AI and 6th Generation Fighters — #78
30/01/2025 Duration: 02h01min(00:00) - Introduction: AI, Miltech, and Balance of Power (00:32) - DeepSeek AI R1 model (02:36) - DeepSeek: top performance, 30x efficient compute (10:37) - DeepSeek technical innovations (15:38) - The AI Race: U.S. vs. China (34:20) - Fighter Jets and Military Technology (42:54) - Fifth to Sixth Generation Fighter Programs (46:13) - Technology of China's 6th Generation Planes (52:20) - Chinese Sixth Generation Aircraft Capabilities (01:00:50) - Strategic Implications for the U.S. and Future Developments (01:27:48) - Disabling Military Bases (01:31:17) - Implications for the U.S. and China (01:35:26) - Future Defense Strategies and Realities Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the Universit
-
Jim Haslam: Covid Origins and Coronavirus Genetic Engineering — #77
16/01/2025 Duration: 01h55minRelevant links:Jim Haslam on X: https://x.com/jhas5Jim's Substack: https://jimhaslam.substack.com/Jim's book, "COVID-19: Mystery Solved," on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/COVID-19-Mystery-Solved-leaked-Chinese-ebook/dp/B0DPVT9LWV?ref_=ast_author_cp_dpChapters:(00:00) - A quick note on my interview with Jim Haslam (03:40) - Introducing Jim Haslam, author of "COVID-19: Mystery Solved" (04:51) - The DARPA DEFUSE Grant Proposal (08:52) - Ralph Baric and Genetic Engineering of Coronaviruses (20:10) - Danielle Anderson and the Wuhan BSL-4 Lab (24:38) - The Role of EcoHealth Alliance and Peter Daszak (29:28) - The Furin Cleavage Site Controversy (36:43) - NIAID Funding and the Wuhan Connection (40:53) - Capabilities and Limitations of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Baric's Lab (44:41) - The DEFUSE Grant and Wuhan Institute of Virology (48:22) - RaTG13 Genome and Its Implications (50:34) - Kristian Anderson's Alarming Discovery (01:00:42) - Feb. 1 Teleconference with Fauci & Baric; Feb. 3 NAS Meeting (01:19:41
-
Joscha Bach: Consciousness and AGI — #76
02/01/2025 Duration: 01h21minJoscha Bach is a German cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher known for his work on cognitive architectures, artificial intelligence, mental representation, emotion, social modeling, multi-agent systems, and the philosophy of mind. Links of interest:http://bach.ai/https://x.com/PlinzSteve and Joscha discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:26) - Growing up in the forest in East Germany (06:23) - Academia: early neural net pioneers, CS and Philosophy (10:17) - The fall of the Berlin Wall (14:57) - Commodore 64 and early programming experiences (15:29) - AGI timeline and predictions (19:35) - Scaling hypothesis, beyond Transformers, universality of information structures and world models (25:29) - Consciousness (41:11) - The ethics of brain interventions, zombies, and the Turing test (43:43) - LLMs and simulated phenomenology (46:34) - The future of consciousness research (48:44) - Cultural perspectives on suffering (52:19) - AGI and humanity's future (58:18) - Simulation hypothesis (01:03:33) - Liquid
-
Adventures in Physics, Trump, and more, with the Information Theory podcast — #75
19/12/2024 Duration: 01h19minThis episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning.Information Theory Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@InformationTheoryPodInformation Theory Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PbxeOYInRuH4DBXOAOq5u?si=q90fZh8PRUut5c1XG4K7Sw (00:00) - Introduction to Information Theory podcast (01:19) - The education of a physicist (10:53) - Computational genomics (19:40) - Thinking styles and collaboration in theoretical physics (26:08) - Scientific progress and the Great Stagnation (40:39) - University research administration (45:05) - Reproducibility crisis (57:58) - Impact of basic research (01:03:16) - Critique of NIH and biomedical research (01:06:48) - Personal reflections on Trump's re-election and an inside view of the 47 transition (01:12:37) - Silicon Valley and US politics (01:15:30) - Concerns and hope for America's future Music used with permission from Blade
-
Pascal Lottaz: Neutrality, Geopolitics, and International Conflict — #74
05/12/2024 Duration: 01h37minPascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & HakubiCenter. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history. Follow Pascal on X @PlottazPascal's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies (00:00) - Professor Pascal Lattaz's background, early life, and experiences in Japan (14:17) - Neutrality in international relations (20:07) - Ukraine's struggle for neutrality (28:44) - Debating the Ukraine conflict (37:50) - Physics, social sciences, and observer-independent reality (46:13) - The importance of dissent in open societies (47:01) - Russian resilience, NATO, escalation strategies, and potential outcomes (51:43) - European realism and U.S. influence (56:16) - Incentive structures and NATO dynamics (01:04:11) - Japan's strategic position and U.S. alliance (01:13:49) - Potential conflicts and proxy wars in East Asia (01:30:
-
Letter from Shanghai: Reflections on China in 2024 — #73
21/11/2024 Duration: 59min(00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China (02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality (06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing (15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture (22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite (27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China (33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. policies on semiconductor industry (35:46) - Quiet confidence in China's technological advancements (37:17) - Discovering my father's history in Yunnan, etched in stone (41:04) - Climbing Jade Mountain on election night: Trump Triumph (48:31) - Shanghai modern infrastructure and technology (51:16) - High-speed rail in China (53:12) - Visit China - or at least watch some travel videos on YouTube! Links to X posts made during my trip - check out the whole timelineduring this period. PPP and US vs PRC Real GDPhttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1851653168158949492 PhD student asks me whether Jews control US politics:https://x.com/hsu_
-
Letter from Beijing, with Han Feizi — #72
07/11/2024 Duration: 01h02minHan Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking.Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/ Chapters:00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi01:39 What it's like in Beijing right now06:38 Modern Conveniences in Beijing12:11 What the economy feels like for ordinary people19:09 China's economic structure: consumption, infrastructure investment, Michael Pettis30:32 Currency Valuation and PPP: real PRC is significantly larger than US economy31:45 US high living standards and manufacturing competitiveness34:13 Globalization and its discontents40:15 Reversing globalization and the myth of American exceptionalism45:58 China's increasingly high quality standards and quality of life58:09 Whither China? Xi JinpingMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hs
-
Seeking Truth From Facts: Israel and Iran, Missile Defense, China Economic Development
24/10/2024 Duration: 01h05minThis is a crossover episode with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast. (00:00) - Iranian missile attack vs Israel and missile defense (13:10) - Is there potential for a 1973-style oil crisis? (21:41) - Is NATO getting tired of the proxy war in Ukraine? (25:43) - Why has Europe declined relatively since 2008 and what are the consequences of said decline? (30:13) - Is procyclical European fiscal policy to blame? (34:51) - Has China's infrastructure boom been a white elephant? (41:37) - China's energy grid and solar energy transision (46:57) - Will India catch up to or overtake China? (57:06) - Is liberal democracy really necessary for long-term economic prosperity? (01:00:14) - How did Lee Kuan Yew transform Singapore? Links: Iran ballistic missiles and missile defensehttps://stevehsu.substack.com/p/iran-vs-israel-implications-for-missile Pershing 2 Missilehttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1843450614552113316 Russia-Ukraine war and Iran blowbackhttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1844551899103863154 India development
-
Samo Burja: Intellectuals, Culture. and the Technosphere — #70
10/10/2024 Duration: 01h37minSamo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social philosophy. From 2020 to 2023, he was a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation where he studied how institutions can endure for centuries and millennia.Samo writes and speaks on history, institutions, and strategy with a focus on exceptional leaders that create new social and political forms. Image has systematized this approach as “Great Founder Theory.”Steve and Samo discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:38) - Meet Samo Burja: Founder of Bismarck Analysis (03:17) - Palladium Magazine: A West Coast Publication (06:37) - The
-
Deus Ex Machina: A Man, Machines, and God
26/09/2024 Duration: 01h30minThis is a crossover episode in which https://x.com/loubohan interviews me for his podcast Deus Ex Machina.I was obviously in an exuberant mood for this interview - it's one of my favorites!Deus Ex Machina podcast:https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mXUfNJdNnOjGfu6VGactr?si=Y3j1OZG4QsGdPhXd8dKsrw…Timestamps:(00:00) - Growing up in Iowa. Athletics, Chinese culture. KMT and military family background. (11:48) - Hearing about the Cultural Revolution from my dad: his family experienced it firsthand in Zhejiang. Meanwhile, US experts and academics were entirely deluded about reality in PRC (20:55) - "Experts" are often miscalibrated (35:03) - Physicists and finance. Was Charlie Munger right to say it's a waste of talent to channel top brains into finance? (45:15) - Hedgehogs, Foxes, and Eagles. Polymathy. (48:41) - Development of modern China as the greatest story of the last 50 years. My first visit to China: the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone in 1992. US-China competition and the future of Asian Americans. (56:52)
-
Seeking Truth From Facts: Alf & Steve Hsu — #68
12/09/2024 Duration: 55minThis is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition.Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853Steve and Alf discuss:(00:00) - Introduction to the Podcast Collaboration (00:48) - Steve Hsu's Background and Expertise (02:22) - US-China Geopolitical Dynamics (28:44) - China's Political System: Meritocracy vs. Autocracy (32:23) - China's Path to Liberalization: Past, Present, and Future (45:57) - Geopolitical Dynamics: China, Russia, and the West Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup found
-
Letter from Reykjavik: Genomics, Chess, Hyperscaling genAI, and Quantum Black Holes — #67
29/08/2024 Duration: 35minThis is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik.Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides):https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland02:04 deCODE genetics 05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik11:56 Hyperscaling genAI23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI?29:45 Quantum black holesMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley
-
Robin Hanson: Prediction Markets, the Future of Civilization, and Polymathy — #66
15/08/2024 Duration: 01h20minRobin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism.Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson"When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU0:00 Introduction00:34 Welcome and Manifest conference introduction03:12 Robin Hanson: Education and Early Influences08:38 Transition from Physics+AI to Social Science and Economics22:02 Prediction Markets: Potential and Challenges28:37 Cultural Drift and Challenges to Modern Society40:49 Fertility and Demography48:37 Life as a Polymath59:27 Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Simulation Question01:09:29 Audience Q&AMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor
-
China Today: Myths and Realities — #65
01/08/2024 Duration: 01h21minSteve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture.00:00 Introduction02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and total workforce39:58 Economic indicators and potential war economy41:03 Singapore as model for PRC development, leadership exchanges45:45 Travel plans, changes since pre-COVID era, YouTube travel content53:00 Freedom of expression1:02:20 Confucianism, leadership styles1:17:57 Backyard Addendum: Further thoughts, travel to ChinaMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at M
-
Ivy League Anonymous: Great Awokening and Campus Radicals — #64
18/07/2024 Duration: 01h11minEarlier episode, Harvard Veritas:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18Chapter markers:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome (02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception (06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom (21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism (35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide (54:30) - Future of Academia and Closing Thoughts Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, an
-
AI Global Odyssey: REAL Situational Awareness — #63
04/07/2024 Duration: 59minSteve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley.Chapters:(00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley (01:48) - The AI Bubble in Silicon Valley (04:00) - Scaling Laws and AGI (23:36) - Global AI: Singapore, Philippines, real Enterprise applications (34:59) - AGI: Manhattan Project? Manifest and P(doomers), Situational Awareness (51:00) - China LLMs, Huawei vs Nvidia GPUs, US vs China AI race Links:Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08361AI rollout in Philippines Call Centers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kps3M1wMHUMLLM rankings and Qwen2: https://huggingface.co/spaces/open-llm-leaderboard/blogThe Economist on China LLMs: https://archive.ph/nW7chSituational Awareness summary: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1803414701159714825Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and En
-
Philippe Lemoine: Bad Covid Science, Ukraine Analysis, and Philosophy — #62
20/06/2024 Duration: 02h17minPhilippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.comPhilippe on X: https://twitter.com/phl43(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (00:54) - Philippe's Academic Journey (08:29) - Philosophical Insights and Career Shift: Public Intellectual (46:17) - Russian Energy and European Economy (48:27) - Covid Epidemic Modeling: Bad Science (56:22) - Critique of Scientific and Policy Incentives (01:31:54) - The Messy Reality of Ukraine Maidan Uprising (01:32:59) - Could Security Guarantees Have Prevented the Ukraine War? (02:07:21) - Ukraine War: Long-Term Predictions Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Se
-
John Seo: Catastrophe Bonds and the Investor Choice Problem — Manifold #61
06/06/2024 Duration: 01h14minDr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of Lehman Re, and a state-appointed advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Dr. Seo’s work in catastrophe funds was featured in a cover article for the New York Times Magazine (‘In Nature’s Casino’ by Michael Lewis, 26 August 2007), and he has also testified before US Congress as an expert on the catastrophe bond market (‘Hearings from the 110th Congress’, 6 September 2007). Dr Seo holds a PhD in Biophysics from Harvard University and a BS in Physics from MIT. He is based in Connecticut.Steve and John discuss:00:00 Introduction00:36 Early Career and Influences02:10 The Investor Choice Problem07:21 Academic Ba
-
Molson Hart: China and Amazon, Up Close — #60
16/05/2024 Duration: 01h25minMolson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X.Molson Hart on X: https://x.com/Molson_HartAmazon Documentary: https://youtu.be/8L6MaNVNBuQ?si=YMRb4z5F12CoJJI3Steve and Molson discuss:1:22 Molson Hart's background, experience in China5:26 The IQ Question13:19 Entrepreneurship and China38:40 Selling on Amazon 48:32 Alternatives and Competitors to Amazon50:40 The Future of Amazon55:30 Advice for Aspiring Entrepreneurs57:27 Understanding China1:07:43 China's Rising Global Influence1:16:12 Personal and National Identities1:18:45 Demographics: China's FutureMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoreti