Manifold

Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & HakubiCenter. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history. Follow Pascal on X @PlottazPascal's YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies (00:00) - Professor Pascal Lattaz's background, early life, and experiences in Japan (14:17) - Neutrality in international relations (20:07) - Ukraine's struggle for neutrality (28:44) - Debating the Ukraine conflict (37:50) - Physics, social sciences, and observer-independent reality (46:13) - The importance of dissent in open societies (47:01) - Russian resilience, NATO, escalation strategies, and potential outcomes (51:43) - European realism and U.S. influence (56:16) - Incentive structures and NATO dynamics (01:04:11) - Japan's strategic position and U.S. alliance (01:13:49) - Potential conflicts and proxy wars in East Asia (01:30:

(00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China (02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality (06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing (15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture (22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite (27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China (33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. policies on semiconductor industry (35:46) - Quiet confidence in China's technological advancements (37:17) - Discovering my father's history in Yunnan, etched in stone (41:04) - Climbing Jade Mountain on election night: Trump Triumph (48:31) - Shanghai modern infrastructure and technology (51:16) - High-speed rail in China (53:12) - Visit China - or at least watch some travel videos on YouTube!   Links to X posts made during my trip - check out the whole timelineduring this period. PPP and US vs PRC Real GDPhttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1851653168158949492 PhD student asks me whether Jews control US politics:https://x.com/hsu_

Han Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking.Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/ Chapters:00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi01:39 What it's like in Beijing right now06:38 Modern Conveniences in Beijing12:11 What the economy feels like for ordinary people19:09 China's economic structure: consumption, infrastructure investment, Michael Pettis30:32 Currency Valuation and PPP: real PRC is significantly larger than US economy31:45 US high living standards and manufacturing competitiveness34:13 Globalization and its discontents40:15 Reversing globalization and the myth of American exceptionalism45:58 China's increasingly high quality standards and quality of life58:09 Whither China? Xi JinpingMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hs

This is a crossover episode with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast. (00:00) - Iranian missile attack vs Israel and missile defense (13:10) - Is there potential for a 1973-style oil crisis? (21:41) - Is NATO getting tired of the proxy war in Ukraine? (25:43) - Why has Europe declined relatively since 2008 and what are the consequences of said decline? (30:13) - Is procyclical European fiscal policy to blame? (34:51) - Has China's infrastructure boom been a white elephant? (41:37) - China's energy grid and solar energy transision (46:57) - Will India catch up to or overtake China? (57:06) - Is liberal democracy really necessary for long-term economic prosperity? (01:00:14) - How did Lee Kuan Yew transform Singapore?  Links: Iran ballistic missiles and missile defensehttps://stevehsu.substack.com/p/iran-vs-israel-implications-for-missile Pershing 2 Missilehttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1843450614552113316 Russia-Ukraine war and Iran blowbackhttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1844551899103863154 India development

Samo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social philosophy. From 2020 to 2023, he was a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation where he studied how institutions can endure for centuries and millennia.Samo writes and speaks on history, institutions, and strategy with a focus on exceptional leaders that create new social and political forms. Image has systematized this approach as “Great Founder Theory.”Steve and Samo discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:38) - Meet Samo Burja: Founder of Bismarck Analysis (03:17) - Palladium Magazine: A West Coast Publication (06:37) - The

This is a crossover episode in which https://x.com/loubohan interviews me for his podcast Deus Ex Machina.I was obviously in an exuberant mood for this interview - it's one of my favorites!Deus Ex Machina podcast:https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mXUfNJdNnOjGfu6VGactr?si=Y3j1OZG4QsGdPhXd8dKsrw…Timestamps:(00:00) - Growing up in Iowa. Athletics, Chinese culture. KMT and military family background. (11:48) - Hearing about the Cultural Revolution from my dad: his family experienced it firsthand in Zhejiang. Meanwhile, US experts and academics were entirely deluded about reality in PRC (20:55) - "Experts" are often miscalibrated (35:03) - Physicists and finance. Was Charlie Munger right to say it's a waste of talent to channel top brains into finance? (45:15) - Hedgehogs, Foxes, and Eagles. Polymathy. (48:41) - Development of modern China as the greatest story of the last 50 years. My first visit to China: the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone in 1992. US-China competition and the future of Asian Americans. (56:52)

This is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition.Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853Steve and Alf discuss:(00:00) - Introduction to the Podcast Collaboration (00:48) - Steve Hsu's Background and Expertise (02:22) - US-China Geopolitical Dynamics (28:44) - China's Political System: Meritocracy vs. Autocracy (32:23) - China's Path to Liberalization: Past, Present, and Future (45:57) - Geopolitical Dynamics: China, Russia, and the West Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup found

This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik.Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides):https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland02:04 deCODE genetics 05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik11:56 Hyperscaling genAI23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI?29:45 Quantum black holesMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley

Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism.Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson"When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU0:00 Introduction00:34 Welcome and Manifest conference introduction03:12 Robin Hanson: Education and Early Influences08:38 Transition from Physics+AI to Social Science and Economics22:02 Prediction Markets: Potential and Challenges28:37 Cultural Drift and Challenges to Modern Society40:49 Fertility and Demography48:37 Life as a Polymath59:27 Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Simulation Question01:09:29 Audience Q&AMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor

Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture.00:00 Introduction02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and total workforce39:58 Economic indicators and potential war economy41:03 Singapore as model for PRC development, leadership exchanges45:45 Travel plans, changes since pre-COVID era, YouTube travel content53:00 Freedom of expression1:02:20 Confucianism, leadership styles1:17:57 Backyard Addendum: Further thoughts, travel to ChinaMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at M

Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18Chapter markers:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome (02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception (06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom (21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism (35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide (54:30) - Future of Academia and Closing Thoughts Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, an

Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley.Chapters:(00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley (01:48) - The AI Bubble in Silicon Valley (04:00) - Scaling Laws and AGI (23:36) - Global AI: Singapore, Philippines, real Enterprise applications (34:59) - AGI: Manhattan Project? Manifest and P(doomers), Situational Awareness (51:00) - China LLMs, Huawei vs Nvidia GPUs, US vs China AI race Links:Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08361AI rollout in Philippines Call Centers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kps3M1wMHUMLLM rankings and Qwen2: https://huggingface.co/spaces/open-llm-leaderboard/blogThe Economist on China LLMs: https://archive.ph/nW7chSituational Awareness summary: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1803414701159714825Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and En

Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.comPhilippe on X: https://twitter.com/phl43(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (00:54) - Philippe's Academic Journey (08:29) - Philosophical Insights and Career Shift: Public Intellectual (46:17) - Russian Energy and European Economy (48:27) - Covid Epidemic Modeling: Bad Science (56:22) - Critique of Scientific and Policy Incentives (01:31:54) - The Messy Reality of Ukraine Maidan Uprising (01:32:59) - Could Security Guarantees Have Prevented the Ukraine War? (02:07:21) - Ukraine War: Long-Term Predictions Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Se

Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of Lehman Re, and a state-appointed advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Dr. Seo’s work in catastrophe funds was featured in a cover article for the New York Times Magazine (‘In Nature’s Casino’ by Michael Lewis, 26 August 2007), and he has also testified before US Congress as an expert on the catastrophe bond market (‘Hearings from the 110th Congress’, 6 September 2007). Dr Seo holds a PhD in Biophysics from Harvard University and a BS in Physics from MIT. He is based in Connecticut.Steve and John discuss:00:00 Introduction00:36 Early Career and Influences02:10 The Investor Choice Problem07:21 Academic Ba

Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X.Molson Hart on X: https://x.com/Molson_HartAmazon Documentary: https://youtu.be/8L6MaNVNBuQ?si=YMRb4z5F12CoJJI3Steve and Molson discuss:1:22 Molson Hart's background, experience in China5:26 The IQ Question13:19 Entrepreneurship and China38:40 Selling on Amazon 48:32 Alternatives and Competitors to Amazon50:40 The Future of Amazon55:30 Advice for Aspiring Entrepreneurs57:27 Understanding China1:07:43 China's Rising Global Influence1:16:12 Personal and National Identities1:18:45 Demographics: China's FutureMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoreti

Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic.Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, in the United Kingdom and the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States.Steve and Jaan discuss:00:00 Introduction00:33 Jaan Tallinn: AI Investor02:03 Acceleration Toward AGI: Excitement and Anxiety04:29 AI Capabilities and Future Evolution05:53 AI Safety, Ethics, and the Call for a Moratorium07:12 Foundation models: Scaling, Synthetic Data, and Integration13:08 AI and Cybersecurity: Threats and Precautions26:52 Policy goals and desired outcomes36:27 Cultural narratives on AI and how they differ globally39:19 Closing Thoughts and Future DirectionsReferences:Jaan’s top priorities for reducing AI extinction risk: https://jaan.info/priorities/Music used with permiss

Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system.Steve and Glenn discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China (07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy (14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and Venture Capital (23:08) - Founding a Healthcare Startup and Entrepreneurial Ventures (26:35) - China's Development and Economic Policies (41:17) - Comparing US and China's Economies and Cultures (47:12) - Demographics and Consumer Behavior in China (49:09) - China's Economy: Beyond GDP (56:34) - High Speed Rail: huge success, or white elephant? (01:17:26) - Future of China's Economy References:Glenn Luk on Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlennLukGlenn on High Speed Rail: https://www.readwriteinvest.com/p/is-high-speed-rail-in-china-a-grayMunger and Ricardo: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/03/charlie-munger-ricardo-and-finance.

Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site.March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at <$2.50/kg-H2 and DAC CO2 at <$250/T-CO2, two incredible milestones."Links:Casey Handmer’s website: https://www.caseyhandmer.com/Terraform Industries: https://terraformindustries.com/Nerds on Patrol [Episode 3] - Terraform Industries: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9k3dHFJPEUSteve and Casey discuss:0:00 Introduction00:31 Casey's early life and background, from Australia to Caltech07:55 The academic path and transition to tech entrepreneurship10:40 Terraform Industries15:2

Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/Steve and Russell discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan13:25 Hong Kong and finance31:53 China property bubble48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observationsMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He wa

Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. Steve and Stephen discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets31:47 Dating markets32:53 The Art of PR38:32 Global reach and community engagement39:27 The future of Manifold Markets and user predictions43:38 Life in the Bay Area; Tech, culture, and crazy stuffManifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Prev