Qav Podcast

Indonesia temporarily bans coal exports; GWR up 80% in 3 weeks; ANZ pulled pork; NTD SPP and Tony’s thoughts on SPPs in general; CBA worth a punt; iron stock update; How often to update sell alerts.

In our first episode for 2022, we’re talking about my confusion over some recent 3PTL rule changes, platinum being a buy again, what a “cleansing prospectus” is, Gary’s stellar results, some changes to the buy list, a pulled pork on CIA, CAA and aluminium, Nufarm’s cash flow, how to treat companies we’ve sold using R1, why we use operating cash flow instead of free cash flow, and whether or not CDD is a sell.

It's time for our last show of the year and my annual tradition of trying to pick some highlights from the last 12 months. This year I'm mostly focusing on the journey we went through with iron ore. Back in January 2021 we were talking about FMG and the stellar run it had been on, and why we weren't going to rush into selling it, particularly when it had a very low sell line. But as the year progress, Tony started to talk more and more about watching the iron ore commodity price which, even though the CEO of FMG assured us would stay strong for a long time, started to slide in the second half of the year, prompting Tony to make some painful decisions....

In this episode we’re talking about MYR and LAU warnings, replacing GAP with GWR, CAA upgrade to guidance, Trading View commodity alerts, our stocks of the week (FEX, GMA), our best portfolio stocks for the week, the world’s second tallest building is a warning sign, and CGF’s business model. In the Club edition, we also talk about selling and buying back into FMG instead of just holding it, MFG’s collapse and what their management might be thinking about right now, and more details on the story about Tony’s 20x return on MND back in the day.

We chat with Luke “The Gibbonator” Gibson about his QAV-based YouTube channel “The Gibson Hustle”, about copper becoming a sell, iron ore becoming a buy, whether or not BHP is an iron ore or a copper company, Nufarm chemicals, and Magellan’s woes. In the club edition, we also talk about platinum becoming a buy again, AJL’s qualified audit, our stocks of the week (GRR, GWR), if we should sell any stock that drops below 10% at any time, ATL’s merger news (ugh), how to trade during bull, bear and roo markets, BSL and iron ore, value price vs fair price, and CDD’s capital return. Then in after hours, it’s a lot of Beatles talk again!

This episode is mostly a recap of lessons learned, highlights and lowlights of 2021. We talk about our portfolio performances (eg the QAV portfolio, and our own personal portfolios) in this difficult calendar year, Tony talks about how there seems to be a crisis every three years, and we answer a couple of questions about calculated sentiment and staying fully invested during downturns.

This week we talk about the market’s reaction to Omicron, the new AF worksheet, builders collapsing, Howard Mark’s latest memo, new sells, our top stocks of last week, our stocks picks for this week and whether or not we should go to cash in the current market and wait for things to improve. In the club edition, we also talk about why we’re not buying into ETFs and LICs, what TK thinks about swapping winners for something that is on the buy list, and if we should sell any share that has a 10% drop at any time, regardless of buy price. And, of course, The Beatles.

This week: missing the SUN sell; New Brettalator version; keeping an eye on the sell lines for the stocks of the week; the three fingers of the economy; the MQG SPP; the WAF SPP; Top 3 Dummy Portfolio stocks for the week; NAB is removed from the Buy list; SA enquiry into Kangaroo Island port; CCP and STO fessed up to Job Keeper; BPT CEO resigns suddenly; Why did FMG rise when Iron Ore dropped; GAP price drop after forecasting a loss for the half; Stocks Of The Week - ATP & SUL. In the Club: is it best to buy from the top of the list or with new entries; the psychology of buying shares at all time highs; and avoiding getting lost in the micro weeds.

This week: missing the SUN sell; New Brettalator version; keeping an eye on the sell lines for the stocks of the week; the three fingers of the economy; the MQG SPP; the WAF SPP; Top 3 Dummy Portfolio stocks for the week; NAB is removed from the Buy list; SA enquiry into Kangaroo Island port; CCP and STO fessed up to Job Keeper; BPT CEO resigns suddenly; Why did FMG rise when Iron Ore dropped; GAP price drop after forecasting a loss for the half; Stocks Of The Week - ATP & SUL. In the Club: is it best to buy from the top of the list or with new entries; the psychology of buying shares at all time highs; and avoiding getting lost in the micro weeds.

This week we’re talking about our top three stocks from last week (PRU, BFG, CVL), SHJ (the quiet sleeper), why you shouldn’t innovate until you’re a QAV black belt, why we should NOT filter Price-to-Operating Cash Flow < 7 (whoops), and why Rule #1 is important. In the Club edition, we talk about the stocks of the week (WGX, ABA), the failed GCY acquisition (by WGX), the mistakes Tony heard on another investing podcast, whether or not directors taking large positions in their own company deserves extra credit, the weird CBA sell line, MAD’s weird share capital numbers, IHVV’s returns, the MQG SPP, Tony’s experience with LIC returns, and how much real estate is enough.

This week we’re congratulating Brett and Rowan on their performance, talking about KPT turning into KIL, ZGL’s sudden collapse, new ANZ numbers, the iron ore chart fudge, our top three performing stocks from last week, Tony’s stock tips of the week (IMA and AMI), whether we should hold for a minimum of 12 weeks, GCY’s PE history, what Level 5 of QAV might look like, explaining the flat bottom rule again, ‘massaging’ the process, new bank rate, and behavioural shifts for becoming better investors.

This week we feature an interview with Louise Bedford, aka Candlestick Queen, author and Founder of Talking Trading. We chat with Louise about why there aren’t more women in investing, how to use candlesticks, and what it takes to be a long-term successful investor. In our club edition, we also talk about the three top performing stocks in our portfolio last week, talk more about market open prices and after hour trades, EWC’s qualified audit, the pulled pork is ECX, AIS and mine life, why Navexa reports we didn’t sell some old stocks quickly enough, AZJ’s sell line and acquisition news, Tony’s current views on AMP, and how much of Tony's portfolio was sold off during the COVID cough.

We talk about AIS starting to get coverage, the COG chart (again), our stock tip performance, our portfolio update, Charlie Munger speaking at Sohn Hearts & Minds, the SXL chart, the ASX200 average Price:CashFlow, lumber is a 3PTL buy, changes to the checklist, copper is a buy again, and SFR is our Stock Of The Week. In the Club episode: platinum is a buy again, Tony sold HLS and bought NAB, WGX is back on the list, IKW is off the list, precious metals forecasting, regression testing on Tony’s portfolio, finding a sell line for stock that don't have 5 years of price history, the process of price setting on the ASX prior to the opening time, and how Stock Doctor calculate their sell prices.

This week we talk about hydrogen futures, the MOZ graph, our portfolio performance, selling MTO, our stock tip performance, Tony’s new idea to replace the 3PTL, GCY back on the buy list, CTP, IDZ’s qualified audit, mixed commodity miners, MMS, CLX, EHL. In the Club edition, we discuss the ethics of buying coal stocks, using a 25 day moving average, the timing for 3PTL sells, Tony's thoughts on Elliot Wave theory, Tony's view on letting emotions impact an investing decisions and a review of ATL's price, and Tony's take on how inflation might affect QAV theory.

This week we introduce the “Gladys” graph and the “Napoleon” line. We talk about our stocks of the week (NHC, CVW), the doom and gloom in the global markets and how to use QAV to stay sane, the MYR collapse, how to calculate the sell line for SDG post-dividend, and the charts for AMI, BSE. In the Club Edition, we also talk about when to buy back into iron ore stocks like FMG, STO sentiment and oil prices, our 4E submission to the ASA, why RIC is a “get in quick” stock, why BXB and ANN dropped quickly, investment structures if you’re living off the dividends (like TK is now), and whether Tony would consider investing in something like BBUS or BBOZ. All that and after hours!

This week we chat about MYR (Tony’s pulled pork), MHJ (our small cap stock of the week), live cattle futures, FMG as a challenger buy, ATL’s price increase, MWY back on the list, selling off the banks, using Sparklines and Excel’s STOCKHISTORY, discounting one-off cashflow events, getting back in to commodity sells, investing in businesses with mostly intangible assets, how to tell if Stockdoctor has the latest figures, handling tax time, and measuring Tony’s results by after-tax returns. And our guest this week is Brett Fischer, the investor of the Brettalator!

We chat with James Williamson, value investor, and Founder, Executive Director & Chief Investment Officer at Wentworth Williamson Management. We also talk about Brett’s new 3PTL tool, Gary’s terrific QAV-based paper returns on Strawman, MYE fatality and price drop, ZGL price update, FMG - huge drop, execs leaving in droves, CVW financials in SD, handling some tricky flatline graphs, Corporate Tax hike going to the senate in the US, S32 is a zinc miner, ATL and Camplify, MYR is profitable again, but numbers aren’t in SD yet, MWY removed because of lumber graph, SRG breached it’s Sell line, MIN - iron ore sell, why BLX fell nearly 7%, why CDM went down, why EHL and ABA aren’t on the scorecard, SMSFs and Trust Deeds, why TK bought NAB, why WAF is dropping, the sell line for ZIM, Copper price heading in the right direction, and After Hours!

This week on QAV we talk about Bloody Thursday, James’ great QAV results, how Navexa calculates portfolio returns, Buffett’s global market indicator, CVW hiring investment bankers, CCV’s new QAV score, audit reports still coming out, ATL’s audit, lobbying ASIC about 4E statements, Josephines being due to dividend drops, Munger’s “always invert” lesson, Tony’s pulled pork is AIS, James asks about modifying the QAV process for commodities, Steve asks about WMC’s audit, Dave asks about running multiple portfolios, Edward asks about inflation, and Mark asks about how Tony picks large cap stocks. Plus After Hours!

Tony reports on his recent analysis on companies that go from a negative cashflow to a positive cashflow; Tony has been trying to find a place where a qualified audit is recorded that makes them easier to find than having to scroll through the annual report; GLE’s results are out and their shares are up; Speaking of scorecards, we’re publishing our first official scorecard since getting our AFSL this week! ; Our portfolio just passed the two year anniversary and is looking good; Tony’s pulled pork this week is CVW, Clearview Wealth; and we talk about ASG, MXI, VRS, commodity stocks, VUK, HUM, CKF and CAR.

This week we have some big news, talk about some minor errors we’ve fixed in the checklist and bible, then Tony does a pulled pork on COG, we explain ASX’s cash flow anomaly from last week, Tony talk about some recent regression testing he has done on selling when the QAV score hits 0.5 and on using ROE in our checklist, Shell scenario planning frameworks, whether or not we should discount sentiment for companies with a small float, which part of the cycle Tony thinks the market is in and whether or not it matters, MYE’s falling QAV score, the sell line for CDD, the buy line for CAA, and how Tony treats REITs.