Qav Podcast

My circle of competence is just QAV ; Election result, investing implications ; SEQ and the “second buy line” ; outperformance by founder-led companies ; NHC’s big drop ; YAL halt ; Murph from ABC died ; Howard Marks’ latest memo on investor psychology ; Sri Lanka defaulting on $18bn of bonds. ; Underemployment rate now at 6.1% ; NUF has new results and crashed ; Australians lost $10Bn in crypto last year ; small stocks and Rule 1 ; what do you do in a market like this when you have a full portfolio and more capital ; a strong correlation between dividend yield and the QAV buy list ; Analysis of price to consensus target figures ; ME close v Price Chg 1mth (%) for calculating Josephine ; when a stock has done exceptionally well (say doubled) would TK use the proceeds to purchase two stocks? 

A few months ago, one of our members put me on to Benj Gallander and Ben Stadelmann, two Canadian value investors who go by the moniker “Contra the Heard” (http://www.contratheheard.com). They've been around a long time, have a track record almost as good as Tony's, and they have a checklist! And when I reached out to them to invite them on to the show, I discovered that Ben and Tony were actually friends, from Tony's years in Toronto. But in typical humble value investor style, they hadn't really ever talked much about investing... until this interview we did a few weeks ago!

We’ve been banned from talking about crypto and fund managers; Mark’s checklist for the checklist; kids and investing; commodity update; portfolio update; are we counter cyclical; new results in SD for ECX and NAB and PDL; CGT planning; top 3 LICs; S32 update; Renko charts; setting Josephine alerts; pulled pork on PTL; stocks and high interest rates; defining "independent director”; how quickly to buy after a sell; the difference between a Josephine versus a falling knife; gold USD v AUD; the ACL chart; operating cashflows and lease payments.

There’s blood on the streets! We introduce the underlying commodity Josephine rule, MML is now X64, aluminium is a sell, iron ore sell fudge, RBA lifts interest rates, Rule 1 price for penny stocks, pulled pork on PDL, what is a "Cash settled total return swap”, investing during interest rate rises, Alumina v Aluminium, Rule #1 alerts when you’ve bought a particular stock in a few different tranches, GMA and the Impact of rising interest rates, when to factor a dividend back into the price.

We’re talking about the Berkshire AGM, poor fund manage performance, pulled pork on AMP, the TRS CEO departure, CCP’s drop, linear v log charts for 3PTL, and everyone’s fear of low sell Iines.

We are joined by guest Steven Mabb, Chairman of the Australian Shareholders Association, to talk about the importance (or not) of voting in AGMs and how the ASA can help. Later we talk about: BRK AGM this weekend, China’s lockdown, Netflix’s stock price, PGL on our buy list, the Solomons and China, the BHP/WPL de-merger, over-exposure to mining and China, what to do with stocks that go nowhere, why TK prefers a LIC instead of a ETF in case of emergency, the importance of EPS growth, the differences between ROIC and ROE, and AMP’s ‘qualified opinion’.

Afterpay losses explode; natural gas prices at 13-year high; Stocks of the week; Portfolio update; selling SFC; Yield curve has righted itself; BRK has invested $22bn in purchases this year; PRU pulled pork; where to find board ownership if no SD; foreign connections to a non-democratic country; How does TK determine number of stocks he owns?; the impact the Federal and State Govt schemes on GMA; buying stocks with a small spread between the buy & sell 3PTL; digital security measures for protecting our portfolio's in a SelfWealth scenario.

RIP Chris Bailey; Platinum is a sell, but is ZIM a platinum company?; How will the federal election affect us as investors?; BEN is the pulled pork; the actual connection between Reserve Bank rates and mortgage rates; investing in diverse management teams.

Financial health RATING v TREND in the checklist, fund manager performance, Ukraine war driving up mining and energy profits, CAA aluminium pass through, RBA rates, PP on MAM, Tony coming to QLD, Salary Sacrifice into super, OP/CF vs SD OP/CF, FFX sovereign risk and poor financial performance.

AMI bad news; Navexa and CAGR; Stocks of the week; Santos’ big discovery; Max Walsh RIP; Twiggy’s perpetual train; BPNL bloodbath; ABA pulled pork; how to understand yield curve inversion; the psychology of investing; ECX and petrol prices; How does TK manage his portfolio when he’s on holidays?

Hamish Douglass resigns from Magellan board; Russia spiralling towards $210b default nightmare; “Asset Manager Capitalism”; Copper is a buy; GRR is now a Star Stock; MQG is back on the buy list; pulled pork on MQG; petrol and EVs; Buy Now or Later; how quickly Tony sells; are we crazy to be selling commodity stocks at all time highs?; IMA corporate action; understanding "right of use" assets; should we take industry sector into account?; sell line for MAD.

Update from Denis in Ukraine; YAL dividend and drop; Copper is a sell; Another construction company collapse; ASG pulled pork; buying new entries; MML CEO’s sudden exit; WGX announced capital raising; leaving a 10% gap between buy and sell price; CAA and the aluminium price; how to evaluate stocks that are relatively recent entrants on the ASX.

War driving demand for precious metals; how to gross up the sell price of a stock going ex-dividend; tech pipe dreams; new consensus target date filter; Denis contributions; MML revenue drop and bad news; rebuying a stock you’ve just sold; using EMA and SMA or "price change 1 month" to calculate a Josephine; is performance better over reporting season?

Markets and War; bank rate increase; MWY bad results; Construction collapse; Berkshire’s annual letter; GRR results; Portfolio average hold time; outdated consensus valuations; is five year relative strength important; calculating CAGR in Excel; red flag if DPR of greater than 100%.

This week we’re talking about Navexa portfolio issues, overconfidence in investors, Murph resigns from Berkshire, Berkshire invests in a crypto bank, Munger’s recent Q&A, BFG’s money laundering problems, HUM’s acquisition by LFS, CGF back on the buy list, S32 is Tony’s pulled pork, Ares buying into GMA, FMG is a Josephine, and then we answer your questions about Grantham’s bubble warnings, using trend lines to know when to cancel a Josephine, the iron ore sell price, buying stocks close to the sell line, using company market cap figure relative to Index Funds to determine whether a company's share price could be at risk of a near future increase or decrease, kissing a few frogs to get a prince, holding on just for the takeover premium and FEX's very low sell line.

Copper is a buy again, why VUK’s audit it NOT qualified, ASX CEO resigns, the impact of petrol prices, portfolio update, SGR has a qualified audit, NUF is the pulled pork, how to work with a stock you inherit, why we have no cut-off for low Quality scores, Tony’s average holding period, Andrew’s sliding Rule 1.

As we’re joined by special guest Taylor Reilly, we talk about flatulent labels, redefining how a stock comes out of being a Josephine, our portfolio performance for the FY, a pulled pork on CCP, Greenblatt and LEAPS, when to sell after a 3PTL breach, should MAM be on the list, what to do with stocks we get from a demerger, what to do with MXI, more about property v shares, and and whether or not we need to check for a qualified audit if it’s an ASX200/300 company.

Jam packed show this week! Losing money is one thing, losing your nerve is everything ; Iron ore hits $150/ton; CCP results are out, Stock price up 7% over last 2 days; ASX200 down 6.3% for January; How to calculate the Gold price; Stock of the week WLD; hostile takeover of IMA; investing during reporting season; the Fed put; re-buying recent sells; fudging 3PTL sells; Josephine charts; “A” grade companies aren’t “A” grade stocks; concentrating portfolio when there’s nothing to buy; using LEAPs; trading halts; Copper companies churning out cash; 3PTLs for WAF; BHP’s demerger; Rule no.1, should it be applied to a holding as a whole (average price) or to individual parcels?

Talking about the current market volatility, and whether or not we should wait it out and go to cash; we discuss recent articles talking about “investing” in tech stocks and crypto; deep dive on RIO; explain how the Bank Bill Swap Rate works; whether or not new investors should wait until the end of reporting season; getting back to the 'Buy Follows Sell' rule and how it applies to CBA; possible reasons why KRM has gone up and MQG has gone down; and the challenges in placing orders at market value.

On this episode we talk about MYR becoming a sell; Tony’s problems with Howard Marks’ latest memo; the new AF sheet; and our stocks of the week, including Tony’s pulled pork on BPT. In the club episode we answer questions about using West Texas v Brent Crude, using Martin Roth’s Top Stock book, paying attention to announcements during confession season, and what impact interest rate rises might have on QAV in the coming months.