Qav Podcast

This week we pull the pork on EHL, and talk about JBH, QBE, copper, AMP, Warren Buffett’s goat, URW, SWM, HUM, RMS, BHP, ASX, BFG, MIL, ASB, MHJ, we chat with young investor Lachie Duncan, and answer a bunch of your questions.

On this episode we talk about finding ASX300 stocks, CGF is the pulled pork, range trading, buying and selling during reporting season, Rule #2, calculating portfolio returns for volatile portfolios, natural gas, palladium, nickel and aluminium stocks, taking quality of management into consideration, the CBA off market buy back, the MXI 5:1 consolidation, sell lines for stocks going ex-dividend and our TV, movie and music recommendations!

Today Tony is talking a lot about commodity prices and what their decline means for our portfolio. Iron ore, gold, copper and platinum are all in decline. We also talk about the “Dogs of QAV” model, SKT, RIO, CBA, DSK, Superhero's performance issues, and explain what a “Josephine” is.

This week we talk about why MML crashed after it announced its quarterly results. How Tony uses “Rule #1” to avoid losing money. Lots of interesting things going on with oil at the moment. How mergers and acquisitions can be a signal of late market cycle behaviour. Why FMG’s huge dividend payout is a signal of things changing with the company. RIO’s results in Stock Doctor. How Tony updates his scorecard in the early stages of reporting season. His pulled pork this week is CCV. How to calculate the performance of a portfolio with a lot of capital in and out flows. And the idea of adding ROE>20% as an item to the checklist.

This week we talk about MIL’s “Emphasis of Matter”, MXI’s trading halt, MTO’s sell line, MML’s sell line, ABA’s buy line, WWG’s QAV score, investing in QAV to build up a deposit for a property, Tony’s pulled pork is HZN, CBA’s sell line, MQG’s sell line, the oil price’s sell line, ANZ’s sell line, tailwinds, using EV/EBITDA, XRO’s sell line, how Tony defines an uptick, and our guest today (club edition only) is Alison Harrington, Brisbane Convenor and Education Officer Qld for the Australian Shareholders' Association, who talks about women in investing.

Amendments to the 3PTL wording in the bible; how to calculate performance of a volatile portfolio; creating wealth by gearing a property; updating your 3PTL alerts; the pulled pork on SUN; sell lines for banks and other stocks with high QAV scores; KRM is stopping gold production, what does that mean for investors; C6C has dropped, when do we sell?

Another long episode (1.5 hours)! We talk about our performance vs the top funds; Buffett’s ABCs; Why TK bought gold miners over retailers last week; the idea of a “second peak”; HUM’s exposure to Forum Finance; the performance of the 2017 Dogs; a deep dive on MML and MIL; how Rule #1 works; how TK would invest if he was 25 again; whether or not I should sell MYR; copper physical vs futures; and how to spot “bad news” during reporting.

This week we discuss our EOFY result (48%); decide to sell VUK again; MYR and Solly Lew; SOTW is GRR; the Sell price for BCN; contrarian investor Michael O’Higgins’s ‘Dogs of the Dow’ strategy; Duncan and The Mystery of The Reducing Scores; the Copper and Coal commodity prices; the chart for SUL; how to understand IMA’s market depth report; Magellan’s intention to transition its High Conviction Trust listed investment company into an active exchange-traded fund; would apply 3PTL to a chart given the effect of a consolidation like for COG; and the sell lines for banks.

A massive two hour episode (for club members) this week! We talk about Gary’s Strawman results, a final portfolio update for the FY, Tony’s SOTW (BCN), Dylan the Intern’s latest modelling on flatlines, the chart for MIL, why we sold ATL, lots of questions about using Simple Moving Averages, thoughts on DSK, why Buffett still owns Coke, and then we finish with an interview with club member James Oliver who is an auditor with a major accounting firm, and talks us through what we should be watching for when it comes to qualified audits.

With the ASX in free fall, we talked about ATL’s sell line, selling VUK, some new stocks to hit my scorecard, including CLX, NGE, VTG and SHJ, Tony’s SOTW (KSC), comparing using MACD as a charting tool to the 3PTL, more thinking about how to use the new flatline rule, how to use indicators to pick a conservative stop loss, routines for maintaining a portfolio, and the Woolworths demerger.

We debate the 3PTLs for ATL and AGD, talk about the recent jumps in price for AIS and CGS, the ANZ price, the lag in dividend payments, the results of Tony’s recent analysis of the performance of dividend stocks in the QAV portfolio, why fudge is science, the poultry price on indexmundi, how to manually replace the SD financial health rating, some formula changes to the the TK Master Spreadsheet, and whether or not the GCY announcement of higher costs is a big enough red flag to make Tony want to sell.

We chat with James Holt, Director, Investment Solutions at Perpetual, then get into news and Q&A. This week Tony answers your questions about how companies set their share price for a float, the application of Rule #1 vs. waiting for the sell line, shares that don’t seem to register any trade movements, how to build a QAV portfolio more weighted to dividend paying stocks, whether or not to eliminate existing holdings in ETFs from a QAV portfolio, and whether Tony has ever looked at a chart and thought I'm not buying that even though the numbers are good.

This week we’re talking about why we sold MRC and bought ATL; FMG is down and Tony’s current thinking about commodity 3PTLs; why we’re taking ETFs and LICs out of QAV; late stage market behaviour; SOTW; why we allow stocks in the scorecard with a quality score below 75%; why HUM is on the scorecard; if Myer is a Schrodinger; Ray Dalio’s thoughts on the stage of the market and how it applies to QAV; if it’s too late to buy into AIS; and why the score for “PE

In the first half of this episode we're joined by Navarre Trousselot & Thom Benny from Navexa, an online portfolio platform, who tell us a bit about the vision for their product and what they've seen investors doing lately. Then we talk about minimising brokerage fees, building a portfolio with lump sums, the 3PTL on VDGR, Tony's latest thinking about commodity sell lines, how to deal with stocks that cross their sell line but are also at the top of the scorecard, and what's going on with iron ore producers.

We talk about the bank results; tech wreck; Buffett breaking the NASDAQ; Increasing Net Equity v NEPS; re-naming the “buy list”; LICS and NTA; Price to Operating Cashflow for ETFs; Tony’s performance today vs when he had a smaller portfolio; CCV’s buy line; where the Top 200 ASX stocks came from; graphic positive sentiment for see-saw stocks; the gold cycle; and ATL’s debt levels.

This week we recorded while I was staying with Tony down at Cape Schanck! We talked about the collapse of BPT, why ATL is our SOTW,  the highlights of the Berkshire Hathaway 2021 AGM, the importance of price to cashflow in our checklist, Stock Doctor's coverage of A2 Milk, why companies issue new shares at a steep discount, MML's 3PTL buy line, gold miners and market cycles, why BOQ dropped off the buy list, and then I get Tony to tell the story about how he bought his Cape Schanck property 22 years ago using his winnings from winning trivia competitions on TV and radio. Finally, I passed the microphone around after our QAV Club dinner in Melbourne and asked the folks there to talk about what they have learned from the podcast. 

On this episode, we talk about our portfolio performance, SOTW, Colin Nicholson’s three market stages, Jack Bogle’s fourth law of motion, if SSG is a sell, the value of private banking, the idea of using increasing equity per share, and investing in Early Stage Innovation Companies.

This week we chat with Chris Stott, Chief Investment Officer at 1851 Capital and then get into our regular show, where we discuss the MRC collapse, the CAA takeover bid, Geoff Wilson’s LIC strategy, our SOTW (DSK), if MYR is close to a sell, DKM dropping off the buy list, directors transactions, IV2 challenger strategy, why research firms suspend coverage on stocks, using (ATR) average true range multiples to set trailing stops, current US valuations, and whether or not TRS as a recent positive upturn.

Regression testing with Dylan the intern; “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation”; SOTW: MXI; Tony’s thoughts on investing in a NASDAQ 100 ETF; should keep our AGD shares; Why did TK skip past MYR on the buy list; capital raising only to institutional investors; How AGMs fit into Tony's investment strategy; looking at a Depth of a share chart; postponing a decision to buy a share based on the AFR headlines; a checklist for reporting season; how the current buy list compares to other periods; QAV book club.