Qav Podcast

Today "St Anthony" answers your questions, reveals the true cost of sending kids to private school, and explains how he approaches raising a wealthy child.

Our guest this week is Michael Dee from Pythagoras Investing - www.PythagorasInvesting.com. His tool "predicts the timing of upcoming share events and their positive or negative price effects."

This week we have a 100 minute premium episode answering all of your excellent questions about subjects such as: - banks and sentiment - AQG / SSR merger - Stanmore Coal acquisition offer - Buying more when the price drops below the buy line - Using a 5 yr/weekly chart to help fine tune your trend lines - using the checklist to score LICs - holding back on the retail sector - thoughts about oil glut and prices affecting Oil/Coal companies  - During times of volatility (like GFC or dot com bust) did Tony notice a similar increase in buy/sell?  - How Tony stages his entry into a position - How he regression test the results/model - The buy line for OSH - SFC sell price and recent update on their financials - How does Tony decides what percentage of his capital to invest when he BUY stocks such as MQG - How to analyse the TGP graph - Why the TRS, WPL and MQG charts are different - and Tony also introduces his new magic 3PTL maths.

Nicholas Gruen is an economist, entrepreneur and commentator. He is CEO of Lateral Economics. He spoke to us recently about Modern Monetary Theory and the short-term future of the Australian economy.

Tony talks about some of his recent "musings" regarding bank stocks and comparing the results of his analysis of using Stock Doctor filters versus our three-point trend lines. Then we talk about his reasons for our recent portfolio buys and sells.

Alex Hay is a partner at broking firm EL&C Baillieu. He has been Tony's stock broker for 25+ years. Alex joined us recently to chat about the services firms like his provide, his relationship with Tony, and what he thinks might happen in the market over the next 6-12 months.

We talk about the recent Berkshire Hathaway AGM, Tony "muses" about buying NAB without waiting for positive sentiment (shock! horror!), discusses some new theories about using Stock Doctor filters, and then he answers a ton of your questions about - pyramiding - whether or not Tony ever sets a margin where he always cashes in the profit - how to calculate  the intrinsic value of each of the top 20 stocks - and a heap of questions about drawing three-point trend lines.

We're joined by two young value investors, Jackson Lee and Ricky Yeo from the Sydney Superinvestors meetup, who talk about how they manage their portfolios and what they consider to be their hot tips of good value stocks.

Today we answer your questions about why we're buying back into the market even though Tony has doubts over the recovery - how we account for the quality of management in our analysis - how much attention Tony pays to volume of shares traded - Stock Doctor's "Price to Cashflow" and "Price to NTA" filters - how to calculate three-point trend line sell signals - how the checklist weights ‘quality’ vs ‘value’ metrics - how patient Tony is with a stock if it drops soon after he buys it (versus "you breach you gone") - Stock Doctor's diluted weighted no. of ordinary shares vs 'Fully Paid Ord. Shares' - HAW's future cash flow - Milton Corporation's conference call - and how to go about setting up a brand new portfolio.

Chris Tate from Talking Trading and The Trading Game joins us today to talk about his approach to investing, futures trading and turtle trading. Then we answer some listener questions about whether or not the market has priced in the coming economic carnage.

How are Australia's two million small businesses coping with the lockdown? Is the government stimulus helping? What will happen to them on the other side of the crisis? To help us get our heads around these questions, we're joined today by Kane Kelfkens, owner of The Family Jewels, a jewellery business with several outlets in Sydney. Then we answer some of your investing questions, about dollar cost averaging, the possibility of a US currency devaluation, the best sources to find stocks, and whether or not Tony sells his entire holding or just a part of it when it breaches the downwards three-point trend line.

Mark Jones is an old friend of Cameron's, CEO of Sydney PR and marketing firm Filtered Media, and author of the new book about corporate storytelling, "Beliefonomics". Tony and Cameron caught up with him in Sydney recently for a chat.

Tony walks us through his decision to buy some STO shares last week (as per the email we sent to QAV Club members on Friday). Tony then answers some member questions about Stanmore Coal, how listed investment vehicles lend themselves to QAV analysis, the KMT rights issue, and Roger Montgomery’s recent article.

Part 3 of our rebooted getting started podcasts. This picks up where episode 303 left off, halfway through the QAV checklist.

Tony thinks the market is going through the "five stages of grief" and we debate which stage we are up to. He also talks about the "Coppock Curve" which suggests markets, like people, go through periods of mourning. Then we answer some of your questions about: the best way to set up a profile to trade, comparing full-service brokers to low-cost DIY options, how to treat companies with negative “net income “, what Tony thinks about Discounted Cash Flow calculations, his thoughts on the possibility of inflation in the next few years, whether or not he ever uses options, whether or not found he has found any companies with good scores lately, and what he thinks about Kathmandu

Part 2 of our "getting started" reboot. In this episode we get into the nitty-gritty of the checklist and the data sources we use.

Back to answering your questions today, including topics about leveraging your portfolio, replacing Stock Doctor with another data source, banning short-selling, investing in REITs, how to prioritise the watch list, and just generally when to buy back in. Tony's basic approach right now is to "wash your hands - and then sit on 'em."

As it's been a year since we recorded our "introduction to QAV" episodes, a couple of our listeners suggested it would be a good idea to re-record them, now that we're much smoother on the mic. So we present - QAV Reboot. We introduce ourselves and the QAV system of investing in shares.

While Friday brought a dead cat bounce, Tony thinks the correction is just getting started. He says we're yet to see the impact of the coming credit crunch. We answer a question about whether or not Tony invests for the purpose of living off the dividend income, and in our club edition we analyse Macmahon Holdings (MAH) just for practice. As I say - NOW is the time to send yourself to QAV University. When the market turns around, we should all be ready with a watchlist so we can jump in quickly and ride it all the way up in the next cycle.

Tons of questions this week from club members about how to invest during a market correction. And as the market is still in free fall, we don't bother with a stock analysis. So we just spend 90 minutes answering your excellent questions.