Macro Musings

Paul Schmelzing is an economic historian, a visiting scholar at the Bank of England and a postdoc at the Yale University School of Management. Paul has written an influential new paper on the long history of interest rates titled, "Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018." Specifically, Paul and David discuss the implications of this paper’s findings for secular stagnation theory, Thomas Piketty’s inegalitarian wealth spiral, and for macroeconomic policy more generally.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Paul’s Twitter: @paul_schmelzing Paul’s Harvard profile: https://scholar.harvard.edu/pfschmelzing/bio   Related Links:   * Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline, 1311–2018* by Paul Schmelzing https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018   David’s blog

Ernie Tedeschi is a policy economist and the head of fiscal analysis at Evercore ISI, a macro advisory firm. He is also an occasional contributor to The Upshot section at The New York Times. Previously, Ernie was a senior advisor and an economist at the US Department of Treasury. His research interests include the federal budget, monetary policy, and labor markets. Ernie joins the show to talk about output gaps, full employment, labor markets, and the state of the economy. Specifically, Ernie and David discuss Ernie’s recent articles titled *Participation in the Hot Labor Market* and *Pay is Rising Fastest for Low Earners, One Reason? Minimum Wages.*   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/monetary-policy   Ernie’s Twitter: @ernietedeschi Ernie’s blog: https://medium.com/bonothesauro   Related Links:   *Participation and the Hot Labor Market* by Ernie Tedeschi https://medium.com/@employamerica/participation-and-the-hot-labor-market-a84ef77a3bb1   *Pay is Rising

Brent Skorup is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center where he specializes in transportation technology, telecommunications, aviation, and wireless policy. Brent also serves on the FCC’s broadband deployment advisory committee and the Texas Department of Transportation’s autonomous vehicle task force, and he has recent spoke on the topic of airspace design at the Global Air Traffic Management Conference in Dubai. He joins the show today to talk about the future of transportation, including flying cars and highways in the sky. Brent and David also discuss the concept of auctioning airspace, the macroeconomic implications of technological innovation, and how to build or improve infrastructure for autonomous vehicles in the future.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/02102020/brent-skorup-autonomous-vehicles-flying-cars-and-airspace-scarce-resource   Brent’s Twitter: @bskorup Brent’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/brent-skorup   Related Links:  

Marc Lavoie is a professor of economics at the University of Ottawa and an author a recent article on the Bank of Canada’s operating system. Marc is also the coauthor of a popular textbook titled, *Monetary Economics: An integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production, and Wealth.* He joins the show today to talk about these works and more. David and Marc also discuss differences between post-Keynesian and mainstream macroeconomics, the history and defining characteristics of Canada’s corridor operating system, and what ideal central bank policy might look like for Canada in the future.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/02032020/marc-lavoie-canadian-central-bank-policy-real-time-payments-and-post   Marc’s University of Ottawa profile: https://uniweb.uottawa.ca/members/942/profile Marc’s Institute for New Economic Thinking archive: https://www.ineteconomics.org/research/experts/mlavoie   Related Links:   *A System with Zero Reserves and with Clearing Outside of

Joseph Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and formerly, a senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Joseph is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he joins the show today to discuss his recent policy brief titled, “Are Central Banks Out of Ammunition to Fight a Recession? Not quite.” Specifically, David and Joseph discuss the variety of monetary policy tools available to central banks to combat the next recession (with special emphasis on the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan). Joseph also makes the case that the ECB should adopt a formal review of its monetary policy framework.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/01242020/joseph-gagnon-central-banks%E2%80%99-ability-fight-next-recession   Joseph’s Twitter: @GagnonMacro Joseph’s PIIE profile: https://www.piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/joseph-e-gagnon   Related Links:   *Are Central Banks Out of Ammunition to Fight a Recessi

Title: Macro Musings Producers’ Special – A Recap of 2019 and a Glimpse into the Future   Description:   To accompany the new year, David Beckworth is joined by the producers of Macro Musings, Marc and Carter, to talk about the highlights of the podcast throughout 2019, including their personal favorite episodes and the top episodes according to listener statistics. They also discuss some of the most important macroeconomic issues and events of the past year, including the yield curve inversion and ensuing recession speculation, the secular decline of interest rates, the Fed’s big 2019 review, and more.   A massive thank you to all of our listeners who have tuned in over the past few years, and we hope you continue to tune in for more exciting content as we navigate through 2020.   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth   Related Links:   Producers’ Top 3 Episodes:   Robert Graboyes: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/05132019/robert-graboyes-monetary-history-sma

Eric Sims is the chair of the economics department at the University of Notre Dame and is a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank. Eric, along with his colleague, Cynthia Wu, have a number of recent papers addressing monetary policy in low interest rate environments, including a keynote paper presented this past summer at the Chicago Fed Conference that was part of the Fed's big review this year. He joins the show today to talk about this work, focusing on the latest developments in New Keynesian modelling and the current state of macroeconomic research. Specifically, David and Eric discuss the Four Equation New Keynesian Model, the Desirability of NGDP Targeting, and the welfare and cyclical implications of moderate trend inflation.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/eric-sims-new-keynesian-modelling-and-future-macroeconomics-low-interest-rate   Eric’s Notre Dame profile: https://www3.nd.edu/~esims1/ Eri

Peter Conti-Brown is an assistant professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution. Peter is also a historian and a legal scholar specializing in the study of the Federal Reserve and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. He joins the show today to talk about his new paper, *Restoring the Promise of Federal Reserve Governance*. Specifically, David and Peter discuss the institutional history of the Federal Reserve Board, the lack of transparency in the Fed appointment process, and why we should consider raising Fed governor salaries in the future.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/01062020/peter-conti-brown-restoring-promise-federal-reserve-governance   Peter’s Twitter: @PeterContiBrown Peter’s Wharton profile: https://lgst.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/petercb/   Related Links:   *Restoring the Promise of Federal Reserve Governance* by Peter Conti-Brown https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/conti-brown-f

Josh Galper is the managing principal of Finadium, an independent consultancy in capital markets based out of New York City. He joins the show today as part of a two week special on the Fed and repo markets, as he helps us take a look at recent repo market stress from the private sector. Specifically, David and Josh discuss the current state of US repo markets, key bottlenecks that have arisen in 2019, and a balanced proposal to restoring stability in capital markets.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12232019/josh-galper-current-state-repo-markets-key-bottlenecks-and-balanced   Josh’s Twitter: @Finadium Josh’s Finadium profile: https://finadium.com/josh-galper-mba/   Related Links:   Finadium’s homepage: http://finadium.com Finadium’s magazine: http://securitiesfinancemonitor.com   *US Repo at Year-End 2019: The Hard Choices Ahead* by Josh Galper https://finadium.com/finadium-us-repo-at-year-end-2019-the-hard-choices-ahead/   *Are New Repo Participants Gaining Ground?*

George Selgin is the director of the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and is a returning guest to the Macro Musings podcast. He joins the show today as part of a two week special on the Fed and repo markets, as he helps us take a look at recent repo market stress from the Fed’s perspective. Specifically, David and George discuss the basics of the Fed’s balance sheet, the problematic nature of the Treasury General Account and foreign repo pools, and how George would tweak standing repo facility proposals to more directly address balance sheet volatility.    Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12162019/george-selgin-repo-market-stress-fed-balance-sheet-volatility-and-standing   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato profile: https://www.cato.org/people/george-selgin   Related Links:   *Stop the Presses! Or, How the Fed Can Avoid Reserve Shortages without Bulking-Up, Part 1* by George Selgin https://www.alt-m.org/2019/11/12/dtop-the-presse

Robert Samuelson is an economics columnist for the Washington Post and spent several decades working at Newsweek, where he wrote on various economic topics. Robert is the author of several books, including *The Good Life and Its Discontents: The American Dream in the Age of Entitlement* and *The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence*. He joins the show today to talk about the latter and its implications for today. David and Robert go in-depth about the Great Inflation, as they discuss the disagreement within macroeconomics during the 60s and 70s, the history and significance of the period, and how Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker sought to end the inflation.   Tributes to Paul Volcker:   *Remembering Paul Volcker, The Man Who Tamed Inflation* by Scott Sumner https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/473963-remembering-paul-volcker-the-man-who-tamed-inflation   *Paul Volcker’s Legacy* by Scott Sumner https://www.econlib.org/paul-volckers-legacy/   *How Paul Volcker Beat Inflatio

Jim Bianco is the president of Bianco Research, a provider of data-driven insights into the global economy and financial markets, and is also a columnist for Bloomberg. Jim has 30-plus years of experience on Wall Street, and he joins the show today to talk about Fed policy, negative interest rates, and inflation. David and Jim also discuss the possibility of extending the yield curve, the Fed’s recent forays into the repo market, and what low interest rates mean for the economy moving forward.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12092019/jim-bianco-negative-interest-rates-low-inflation-and-yield-curve-expansion   Jim’s Twitter: @biancoresearch Jim’s Bloomberg profile: https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ABvwE0aTOvg/jim-bianco   Related Links:   *A History of Interest Rates* by Dick Sylla and Sidney Homer https://www.wiley.com/en-us/A+History+of+Interest+Rates%2C+4th+Edition-p-9780471732839   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Claudia Sahm is the director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and was formerly at the Board of Governors as a section chief in the Consumer Community Affairs Division as well as serving on the staff macro forecast. Claudia specializes in macroeconomics and household finance, and she joins the show today to talk about some of her work. David and Claudia also discuss her experience working at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the conception of the Sahm Rule, and the importance of big data for economic research and policymaking.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12022019/claudia-sahm-sahm-rule-and-using-big-data-inform-policymaking   Claudia’s Twitter: @Claudia_Sahm Claudia’s Equitable Growth profile: https://equitablegrowth.org/people/claudia-sahm/   Related Links:   *Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy* by the Brookings Institution https://www.brookings.edu/multi-chapter-report/recession-ready-fisc

Carola Binder is an assistant professor of economics at Haverford College and is an associate editor of the Journal of Money, Credit, and Central Banking. Carola is also a member of the CEPR Research and Policy Network on Central Bank Communication, and joins the show today to discuss her work on central banking and populism. David and Carola also discuss the link between central bank credibility and popularity, the twin deficits of central banking, and why NGDP targeting could be an easy transition point from current inflation targeting regimes.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11252019/carola-binder-political-pressure-and-twin-deficits-central-banking   Carola’s Twitter: @cconces Carola’s blog: https://carolabinder.blogspot.com/   Related Links:   *Political Pressure on Central Banks* by Carola Binder https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3244148   *Whose Expectations Augment the Phillips Curve?* by Carola Binder https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?ab

Binyamin Appelbaum is the lead writer on business and economics for the editorial board of The New York Times, and he was previously a Washington correspondent for The Times covering the Federal Reserve and other aspects of economic policy. Binyamin is also a returning guest to the show, and joins today to talk about his new book, *The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society*. David and Binyamin also discuss Milton Friedman’s influence on economic thought during the postwar era, the history of the emergence of supply side economics, and the consequences that have arisen from committing too strongly to free market principles.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11182019/binyamin-appelbaum-economists%E2%80%99-hour-false-prophets-free-markets-and   Binyamin’s Twitter: @BCAppelbaum Binyamin’s New York Times profile: https://www.nytimes.com/by/binyamin-appelbaum   Related Links:   *The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fr

George Selgin is the director of the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and is a returning guest to the Macro Musings podcast. Today, George joins the show to talk about recent developments in the payment system. Specifically, George and David discuss the history of attempted payment system solutions, the challenges and costs facing the implementation of a real-time payment system, and why we should care about this issue today.      Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11112019/george-selgin-past-present-and-future-real-time-payments-system   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/george-selgin   Related Links:   *Federal Reserve Announces Plan to Develop a New Round-the-clock Real-time Payment and Settlement Service to Support Faster Payments* - Federal Reserve press release https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20190805a.htm   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.c

Henry Curr is the economics editor for The Economist magazine, and the author of a special report by the magazine on the phenomenon of low inflation now facing the global economy. Henry joins the show today to outline this report and the big questions surrounding low inflation. David and Curr also discuss the persistent low inflation of the present around the globe, why the Phillips Curve has broken down as a policy tool, and how technology may be causing inflation to miss its target set by central banks.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11042019/henry-curr-inflation-phillips-curve-and-new-monetarism   Henry’s Twitter: @Henry_Curr Henry’s Economist profile: https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/henry-curr/   Related Links:   *Inflation is Losing its Meaning as an Economic Indicator* A Special Report by Henry Curr (note that this link includes many of the various pieces discussed during the episode) https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/10/10/inflation-is-l

Diego Zuluaga is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives where he covers financial technology and consumer credit, and before joining Cato, Diego was head of financial services and tech policy at the Institute of Economic Affairs in London. He joins the show today to talk about his work within this policy area. David and Diego also discuss the future of cryptocurrencies, the fragmented nature of the US banking system, and the growing importance of fintech in our daily lives.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10282019/diego-zuluaga-libra-real-time-payments-and-legacy-community-reinvestment   Diego’s Twitter: @DiegoZuluagaL Diego’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/diego-zuluaga   Related Links:   *New York’s Bank: The National Monetary Commission and the Founding of the Fed* by George Selgin https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/new-yorks-bank-national-monetary-commission-founding-fed   *Fintech

Frances Coppola is a former banker, financial writer, and an author of a recent book titled, *The Case for People’s Quantitative Easing*, and she joins the show today to talk about it.  David and Frances also discuss the overall potential effectiveness of helicopter drops, how they would be deployed during future recessions, and the criticisms and concerns that have been levied against them.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10212019/frances-coppola-macroeconomics-helicopter-drops   Frances’s Twitter: @Frances_Coppola Frances’s website: http://www.coppolacomment.com/   Related Links:   *The Case for People’s Quantitative Easing* by Frances Coppola https://www.wiley.com/en-me/The+Case+For+People's+Quantitative+Easing-p-9781509531301   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

In this special episode of Macro Musings, the roles are reversed, and David Beckworth joins guest host Cardiff Garcia, host of NPR’s “The Indicator from Planet Money”, to talk about his newest paper, *Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting: A Guide to a Popular Framework for Monetary Policy*. David and Cardiff conduct a deep dive into the plumbing of this potential monetary regime, as they discuss some of the most the important questions surrounding it. Some of these questions include: what is nominal GDP level targeting, and how does it differ from the Fed's current inflation targeting framework? How does NGDP targeting deal with economic downturns and in a more effective manner than inflation targeting? How can this framework be properly communicated and explained to the public? David answers these questions and addresses further concerns and criticisms of NGDP targeting in this unique installment of Macro Musings.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/1018