World Class

When jihadists get involved in civil wars, they push the conflict well beyond its original borders. Since 1990, the rate of jihadist involvement in civil conflict has jumped from 5% to 40%. What's changed? FSI senior fellow Martha Crenshaw, a counterterrorism expert, tells FSI director Michael McFaul how jihadism has grown in the last 30 years and how terrorism and civil wars affect each other. Crenshaw is one of eight FSI scholars confronting civil war threats with the "Civil Wars, Violence, and International Responses" project. Supported by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, FSI's Karl Eikenberry and Stephen D. Krasner gathered experts from around the world to talk about changing international policy to meet these new challenges. We will be speaking with each of the scholars about how civil wars are changing, how they might affect the rest of the world, and what we can do about it. To learn more about the project, check out the fall 2017 and winter 2018 issues of Daedalus, the journal of

Ever wonder how Medicare pricing works? It affects us all more than you might think. Prices for procedures set by Medicare often trickle over to the private sector, so Medicare effectively sets the cost of procedures for the health-care market as a whole. David Chan and Jay Bhattacharya explain how an independent committee gives recommendations on how much each procedure will cost. Because the committee is largely made up of specialists, many wondered whether their pricing might be biased against primary care doctors. The answer? Not much. David Chan and Jay Bhattacharya are core faculty members at Stanford Health Policy, an FSI center. This episode originally aired live through the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

Technology is threatening liberal democracy, say Toomas Hendrik Ilves and Francis Fukuyama. The internet has revolutionized society, but too often it is exploited by authoritarian leaders and populist groups. Fake news breeds more partisanship and disunity. Governments can do more to combat this, but there is a fine line between sensible regulation and encroaching on free speech. For instance, China already drastically regulates their citizens' media use, breeding political resentment. There are no easy answers, and citizens need to encourage a culture shift to continue fighting the toxic effects of these technologies. Francis Fukuyama is the Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law and the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Toomas Ilves is the former President of Estonia and a current affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation.

The way Iranians interact with their government is changing. With information more readily available through the internet, it is easier for citizens to organize protests but also to make an impact without leaving home. Since the Iranian Green Movement in 2009, the political elite has changed dramatically, but a small, stagnant group at the top still holds the most influence. Mehdi Yahyanejad, a senior researcher in computer science at USC, and Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, spoke to FSI Director Michael McFaul about how Iran's youth are changing the way the country interacts with its politicians. They visited Stanford to speak at a conference about whether politics and culture are changing in Iran, co-hosted by FSI and and the Hamid and Christina Moghadam Program in Iranian Studies.

The 2016 cyber campaign to influence the U.S. election has been well documented, but represents only a fraction of what information technology makes possible. Drawing on extensive experience in both the private and public sectors, Paul Stockton, the managing director of Sonecon, outlines how foreign adversaries might use information operations for an increasing number of alarming purposes, sowing discord in a manner that U.S. security forces are unequipped to deal with. Stockton also explains the devastating impact that a cyberattack on American power grids could have, and urges the government to draw on the expertise of the private sector to stay one step ahead of potential threats.

Civil wars have changed. In the last 20 years, the average duration has increased and organizations like the UN have had a harder time keeping the peace. This has been particularly true in the Middle East and North Africa where most peace-keeping and state-building efforts have failed. James "Jim" Fearon, an FSI senior fellow, tells us why civil wars have changed. Fearon is one of eight FSI scholars confronting civil war threats with the "Civil Wars, Violence, and International Responses" project. Supported by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, FSI's Karl Eikenberry and Stephen D. Krasner gathered experts from around the world to talk about changing international policy to meet these new challenges. We will be speaking with each of the scholars about how civil wars are changing, how they might affect the rest of the world, and what we can do about it. To learn more about the project, check out the fall 2017 and winter 2018 issues of Daedalus, the journal of the American Academy of

Ertharin Cousin, the former Executive Director of the United Nation's World Food Programme, leads a panel discussion on the future of African agriculture. African political leaders from the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa concur that more private industry and technological advancement is needed for the continent. Given that famine and corruption is still all too common, African governments need to increase their focus on the security of their food systems. In order to do so, AGRA is working on developing a disease-resistant strain of cassava, a common starch grown throughout the continent. However, high-tech research is not the only solution. Paying attention to the demands of small farmers and creating simple phone apps to track fertilizer use and rainfall can bring just as much benefit.

Countries created after the Soviet Union dissolved provide a unique window into state development. The Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — have emerged as geopolitical and economic leaders in Eastern Europe. Former President of Estonia and FSI Affiliate Toomas Hendrik Ilves and FSI Director Michael McFaul discuss the reasons for these states’ unlikely success, delve into Estonian history, and discuss the ongoing challenges posed by Russia.

Looking for a reliable source on climate change? Marshall Burke is an assistant professor in the Department of Earth System Science at Stanford University and an FSE fellow. He has studied climate change extensively throughout his career. He tells FSI Director Michael McFaul how the world has already warmed one degree Celsius since pre-industrial times, causing more extreme weather events, a small rise in sea levels and a greater amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. There is virtually no disagreement among scientists that the world is warming, he says, and the vast majority of scientists agree that humans are causing the change. Unless we reduce our emissions, the world will warm four to five degrees in the next century, making bad weather worse and gradually increasing average temperatures everywhere. If this happens, the world's GDP will decrease by about 20 percent, causing massive disruption to the world's economy.

The liberal world order that arose after World War II did not occur because of the intellectual superiority of liberal ideas, argues Dr. Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Instead, it was the military and geopolitical might of the United States that converted countries like Germany and Japan into Western-style democracies. However, in today's world, Kagan believes the United States is ceding this role as a worldwide protector of liberal values, enabling countries like Russia and China to become more authoritarian and threatening the world order. Going forward, only a realistic foreign policy that employs military strength to spread American democratic values can prevent a further decay of democracy, he says.

With double-digit unemployment, widespread corruption and inequality, and a youth population ready for change, the recent protests in Iran are no surprise, says Abbas Milani, Stanford’s Hamid and Christina Moghadam Director of Iranian Studies. After arresting more than 3,700 protesters, the Iranian regime has quelled the demonstrations for now. Should we expect more, or will the government succeed in shutting them down? Milani tells FSI Director Michael McFaul that the recent demonstrations are more widespread than, for instance, the 2009 protests against a rigged presidential election. They are concentrated in small, religious towns with little history of anti-government action. Iran’s economic woes are not going away, and Milani expects protests will continue until they do.

How has the United States Constitution been holding up during President Trump's first year in office? Pretty well, says constitutional law expert Gerhard Casper. The three branches of government are still operating independently, and President Trump has actually scaled back the power of his branch by overturning some of President Obama’s executive orders. The American people are politically engaged and have made energetic use of the first amendment. So why the political turmoil? It is our primary system that needs fixing, according to Casper. After serving as dean of the University of Chicago Law School, Casper joined Stanford in 1992 as the university’s ninth president. He was also the director of FSI from 2012 to 2013.

Civil wars are getting longer, and their consequences are starting to seep across borders to threaten other countries and, sometimes, the rest of the world. In this first episode of our series on civil wars, Karl Eikenberry and Stephen Krasner talk about how war is changing and why we need to address it. In their project on confronting civil war threats, Eikenberry and Krasner gathered experts from around the world to talk about changing international policy to meet these new issues. Eight of the scholars are from FSI, and we will be speaking with all of them about how civil wars are changing, how they might affect the rest of the world, and what we can do about it. To learn more about civil wars, check out the fall 2017 and winter 2018 issues of Daedalus, the journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the outreach projects Eikenberry and Krasner are embarking on around the world: https://www.amacad.org/content/Research/researchproject.aspx?d=22262. Eikenberry spent 35 years in the U.S. Army b

For years, people around the world have hailed China as a rising power. Those days are over: China has arrived. At the October 2017 Communist Party Congress, President Xi Jinping was the first Chinese leader to acknowledge China’s strength as a “great” power. What will this mean for the United States and other countries around the world? Former Lieutenant General in the U.S. Army and Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry speaks with FSI Director Michael McFaul about China's new role on the world stage and President Xi Jinping's plans for the country's growth.

U.S.-Russian relations have reached their lowest point since the Cold War. Amidst accusations that the Russian government interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and Russian frustration with NATO, dialogue between the two powers has become increasingly strained. Anatoly Antonov, Russian Ambassador to the United States, talks about what might be done to mend relations between the two countries and offers Russia’s perspective on global affairs.

Sustainable food systems may be the single most essential ingredient of human wellbeing. In this podcast, World Class producer Nicole Feldman interviews Ertharin Cousin, formerly the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and director of the World Food Programme, who is now the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at FSI's Center for Food Security and the Environment. Cousin discusses threats to food security at every stage of production, from bare ingredients to consumption, and delves into the key challenges that the world faces in securing nutritious food for this generation and the next. She delves particularly into the unique harms posed by ongoing security threats like the presence of ISIS and an increasingly mercurial climate, and outlines possible steps forward to create and stabilize sustainable food systems worldwide.

Some Europeans worry about the migrants flooding their borders, but most would be willing to accept more asylum seekers if they felt the system was fair, says Jens Hainmueller. As co-director of the Stanford Immigration Policy Lab, he works with policymakers to create better policies for migrants. He speaks with World Class producer Nicole Feldman about how to improve immigration policy in Europe and the United States for both citizens and migrants.

"It feels like cyber is everywhere and yet at the same time insignificant," says Amy Zegart, co-director of FSI's Center for International Security and Cooperation. As cyber talk turns from how technology makes life easier to how it will doom us all, understanding its many perils becomes increasingly difficult. In her discussion with FSI Director Michael McFaul, Amy Zegart breaks down the threats into four easily digestible categories: spying, stealing, disrupting and destroying. Learn more about Zegart's work on security in "Pragmatic Engagement amidst Global Uncertainty: Three Global Challenges" at https://fsi.stanford.edu/publication/pragmatic-engagement-amidst-global-uncertainty.

What causes civil wars and what can we do about it? Michael McFaul introduces a panel of some of FSI’s most distinguished scholars, who tackle this complex topic in a special two-volume issue of Daedalus, the journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Karl Eikenberry, the former US ambassador to Afghanistan, and Stephen Krasner, former State Dept. director of policy planning, are co-editors of this volume; they are joined by FSI senior fellows Francis Fukuyama, Stephen Stedman, Michele Barry, James Fearon, and Paul Wise.

On the ground in Mosul, FSI senior fellow Paul Wise joined a small team to evaluate the World Health Organization (WHO)'s efforts to treat civilian casualties of war. What he found was a city destroyed but also a remarkable resilience as Iraqis begin to rebuild. The fighting in Mosul is only one example of how war is changing, and humanitarian organizations are working to alter their tactics. Wise leads a group of researchers at Stanford that is evaluating how modern warfare affects civilians and plans to work with humanitarian organizations to adjust their responses. Wise is the Richard E. Behrman Professor of Child Health and Society at Stanford Health Policy.